The latest round, a fresh set of Section 301 tariffs that landed on July 24, replaced the temporary Section 122 tariffs that expired just a day earlier. The new rates run 10% to 12.5% depending on country of origin, and they touch imports from 60 trading partners, which covers roughly 99% of everything coming into US ports. But the real question for carriers isn't how the rates have changed, it's what it does to the imports you’ll be hauling for the rest of the year. The impact on back-to-school and holiday drayage volume is likely to be smaller than you'd expect, and the reason has nothing to do with the tariff rate itself. Let’s break it down.
Importers spent the past spring and summer front-loading cargo to beat the tariff deadline. The monthly TEUs for May and June skyrocketed compared to 2025 as importers frontloaded cargo to beat the new Section 301 tariffs in July. The merchandise that would normally show up on shelves for back-to-school and the holidays is largely already here, meaning that peak season came early. Instead of the usual late summer surge building toward a fall peak, drayage carriers can expect that a good chunk of that peak already moved through back in May, June, and July. If the numbers feel a little lower headed into what would usually be your biggest season, this front-loading from the tariffs is a likely culprit.
Short term, if you're planning capacity for September and October, keep an eye on whether that earlier surge left any lingering backlog or other congestion issues rather than worrying about the new tariff rates, which are a minimal difference from the previous Section 122 tariffs. Check out our guide to navigating the differences between the tariffs here. Longer term, carriers should plan around a tariff landscape that keeps shifting rather than one that settles. This Section 301 action was built on forced labor finding, and it followed a formal investigation process specifically so that it would hold up better to legal challenge than its predecessor. While this doesn’t make it immune to legal challenges, the use of Section 301 here is designed to last much longer term than the previous Section 122 tariffs. Given the front-loading ahead of the typical peak of the upcoming shopping seasons, carriers that can build flexible, early-shifted capacity models now will be better positioned than those still planning around traditional numbers.
Here’s the bottom line for carriers. For the upcoming back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons, you won’t need to brace for sudden change or drop-offs in the wake of the new tariff rates, but timing is key. Retailers have already pulled their inventories forward ahead of the tariff announcement in July, so the typically sharp fall peak has come earlier. Carriers should plan their expected capacity around this change in what’s usually peak season and keep some flexibility for late-arriving replenishment freight. It’s important to not assume that new tariffs automatically translate to drop-offs or extreme changes, because for this season, it’ll mostly mean different timing.
